As two-thirds of the state face some level of drought, the Tennessee Climate Office (TCO) at East Tennessee State University is playing a key role in a NASA-funded effort to improve how rapidly intensifying drought conditions – often referred to as “flash drought” – are identified, monitored, predicted and communicated across the Southeast.

Led by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), the three-year, $849,000 project aims to develop decision-support tools to improve early awareness of rapid-onset and intensifying drought by examining the moisture content in soil. Jonathan Case, principal research scientist with UAH’s Earth System Science Center, is leading the study.

Flash droughts can develop quickly, often before traditional indicators fully capture the severity of impacts on agriculture, water resources and communities. The project will focus on improving soil moisture monitoring and forecasting tools to better anticipate these rapid changes.

The TCO, along with the Alabama Office of the State Climatologist at UAH, will play a critical role in evaluating how the tools support real-world drought monitoring and communication.

The project will also use artificial intelligence to help predict how rapid drought onset or intensification can lead to low streamflow in unmanaged streams across the Southeast. Low streamflow during drought can affect navigation, energy production, recreation, water quality and water resources management, making earlier awareness important for communities and agencies that depend on timely drought information.

“These events can be incredibly frustrating for farmers, producers and water managers,” said Dr. Andrew Joyner, Tennessee’s state climatologist and a faculty member in ETSU’s Department of Geosciences. “During flash droughts, stakeholders often see impacts before those conditions are fully reflected in official monitoring tools. We hope this research will help reduce that delay and provide a more accurate picture of what’s happening on the ground.”

According to the latest drought summary from the TCO on June 26, more than 89% of Tennessee is facing abnormally dry or drought conditions, with all of Carter, Johnson, Sullivan, Washington and Unicoi counties facing moderate, severe or extreme drought.

In Tennessee, the tools developed from this project will support drought monitoring across the state, enhance weekly drought communication and improve input to the U.S. Drought Monitor process.

By connecting NASA-supported research with on-the-ground drought monitoring in Tennessee, ETSU is helping ensure science translates into action. As the Flagship of Appalachia, the university remains committed to advancing research that strengthens communities, supports farmers and water managers, and improves resilience across the region.

Learn more about the Tennessee Climate Office at etsu.edu/cas/geosciences/tn-climate/.

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