ETSU researchers say an unusually warm weather pattern across Southern Appalachia could continue through spring as drought conditions persist in parts of Tennessee.
Friday's temperature climbed to 80 degrees in much of Northeast Tennessee. Saturday delivered more of the same, with unseasonably warm conditions blanketing the region.
If the weather felt unusual, it wasn't an anomaly.
It's part of a pattern that researchers at East Tennessee State University are watching closely.
And seasonal forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggest it will continue through spring.
NOAA's outlook for March through May shows Southern Appalachia likely experiencing higher-than-normal temperatures. Precipitation is harder to predict, with equal chances of above- or below-average rainfall across the region. Drought conditions are forecast to persist through at least March in parts of the mountains, especially in Western North Carolina.
The uncertainty around spring rainfall matters, particularly as much of Tennessee remains locked in drought.
As of March 3, more than half of Tennessee — 50.9% — is experiencing moderate drought, with nearly a quarter of the state tagged as abnormally dry. Smaller areas remain in severe or extreme drought.
"Drought impacts this time of year are typically minimal," said Dr. Andrew Joyner, an ETSU professor and the state climatologist. "Underground water recharge and wildfires are the biggest concerns. The extended forecast shows rain chances several days this week, which should help."
The latest drought monitor shows some improvement in parts of northern Middle Tennessee and East Tennessee following above-average precipitation. Some areas of East Tennessee have cleared drought conditions entirely.
ETSU's role in drought monitoring
At ETSU, the Tennessee Climate Office helps track drought conditions across the state and supplies critical data to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the nation’s authoritative source for drought information.
ETSU is one of only nine sites nationwide participating in a pilot program focused on climate data application, positioning the university at the forefront of weather research that directly serves the region.
"Our work helps state and federal agencies, farmers, water managers and communities make informed decisions about resource management," Joyner said.
He also cautioned that spring weather brings its own risks.
"It's important to remember that spring in the area can bring severe pop-up thunderstorms and even tornadoes, with March, April and May being the peak months for tornadoes across Tennessee," Joyner said. "That's something everyone needs to monitor, especially for areas prone to flash flooding.”
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