East Tennessee State University experts predict a remarkable fall color season across Appalachia, with recent cool weather potentially triggering an earlier-than-usual start to the region’s autumn display.

“The majority of the greater Tri-Cities metro region has seen a very wet spring and summer, which has provided for a great growing season and potential for a spectacular fall color display,” said Travis Watson, ETSU’s campus arborist. “The recent cool weather may be an indication of a slightly early leaf season for parts of the region.”

Early signs point to premium conditions

Cool nighttime temperatures serve as one of nature’s primary cues for leaf color transition, working alongside shorter daylight hours to slow chlorophyll production and reveal the vibrant reds, oranges and golds hidden beneath summer’s green canopy.

Dr. Andrew Joyner, Tennessee’s official state climatologist and ETSU associate professor, said recent weather is creating ideal conditions.

“The cooler pattern recently has likely been helpful and reduced summer-related stressors. There’s no clear sign of a prolonged hot/dry pattern starting again for the next two to three weeks, so that bodes well for a good fall color season,” said Joyner. 

The exception could be for parts of the Great Smoky Mountains and areas near Chattanooga, where warmer and drier weather is expected.

Where to look first

True to Appalachian form, color changes will begin at the region’s highest elevations.

Watson expects the first displays to appear on the highest peaks – including Roan Mountain, Unaka Mountain and Holston Mountain – by the last week of September, possibly sooner if current weather patterns continue.

“The beauty of our Appalachian Mountains lies in its diversity,” Watson said. “The huge diversity of plants coupled with our diverse elevations and habitats allow for an extended color display and opportunity to follow the color over several weeks.”

Minor cautions

While overall conditions look promising, Joyner noted that areas like the Nolichucky Gorge east of Erwin and the French Broad region between Newport and Hot Springs showed some precipitation-related stress this summer. Recent rainfall may help, but these locations could see slightly earlier leaf drop and less vibrant colors.

About ETSU fall color reports 

Today marks the first of ETSU’s weekly fall color reports that combine scientific expertise with deep regional knowledge to help residents and visitors experience the best of Appalachian autumn. As the flagship university of Appalachia, ETSU is uniquely positioned to share both the science and beauty of the region’s spectacular fall displays.

The university will publish reports each Friday at news.etsu.edu until the season ends. 

For more on all the region has to offer, visit etsu.edu/our-region.